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The $300 Billion AI Build-Out: Power, Productivity, and the Next Financial Super-Cycle
Amazon, Microsoft, and Google will spend over $270B on AI infrastructure in 2025. Data-center electricity demand is set to double by 2030, while banks eye a once-in-a-generation project-finance cycle.
Marco Fazio
August 22, 2025
Executive Summary
◆ Capex super-cycle: Amazon, Microsoft, and Google will spend >$270B on AI data centers in 2025.
◆ Electricity bottleneck: IEA projects global data-center power demand to double by 2030.
◆ Clean power PPAs: Tech giants are locking in gigawatt-scale nuclear & renewables.
◆ Productivity tailwind: US and UK show early signs of AI-driven efficiency gains.
◆ Banking opportunity: Project finance, securitisation, and research licensing at scale.
The story of artificial intelligence is no longer just one of clever algorithms, viral apps, and speculative valuations. It has become a story of cement trucks, copper wires, and balance sheets. In 2025 alone, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are expected to commit more than $270 billion to capital expenditure, almost all of it directed at data centers and AI compute capacity. That is more than the infrastructure budgets of many mid-sized countries. It signals that AI has graduated from software fad to industrial revolution. Server manufacturers are already straining: shipments of AI-optimized machines rose 46% in 2024 and are forecast to grow another 28% this year. This is the most capital-intensive wave of computing ever.
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Source: Latestly AI Research (analysis of IEA, company filings, press releases)
If capital is abundant, electricity is not. Artificial intelligence runs on electrons, and in unprecedented volumes. The International Energy Agency estimates that global data-center demand will almost double to 945 terawatt hours by 2030, a growth rate four times faster than overall electricity consumption. The implication is stark:
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